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Oscar for Best Director·closes in 16mo

Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars?

YES means Martin McDonagh

24h volume
0
18.0k lifetime
Open interest
11.1k
+663 over 7d
Spread
1¢
807 × 1,421 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask720¢
  • ask219¢
  • ask1913¢
  • ask9112¢
  • ask2008¢
  • ask7.57¢
  • ask126¢
  • ask1,4215¢
spread1¢mid 5¢
  • bid8074¢
  • bid11.7k3¢
  • bid2,5152¢
  • bid4,1321¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Martin McDonagh has won Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARDIR-27-MAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 114¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago5¢1bought yes
2d ago5¢150bought yes
2d ago5¢9bought no
4d ago5¢1bought no
5d ago5¢5bought yes
5d ago6¢5bought yes
5d ago5¢1.07bought yes
5d ago6¢2.97bought yes
5d ago5¢3bought yes
6d ago4¢1bought yes
6d ago4¢476bought yes
6d ago4¢22bought yes
6d ago4¢23bought yes
7d ago3¢13bought no
10d ago4¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.