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Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?

YES means The Black Ball

24h volume
32
1,765 lifetime
Open interest
1,535
Spread
2¢
2 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
78%

A YES contract costs 76¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
22%

costs 26¢

YES bid / ask
74¢ / 76¢
NO bid / ask
24¢ / 26¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15099¢
  • ask10098¢
  • ask53897¢
  • ask25695¢
  • ask5692¢
  • ask20076¢
spread2¢mid 75¢
  • bid274¢
  • bid273¢
  • bid20072¢
  • bid3055¢
  • bid30136¢
  • bid5335¢
  • bid5914¢
  • bid1052¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Black Ball has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
May 27 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-BLA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago78¢32bought yes
2d ago77¢2bought yes
2d ago78¢200bought yes
3d ago77¢8bought no
4d ago81¢200bought yes
4d ago79¢200bought yes
7d ago79¢31bought yes
7d ago80¢62bought yes
17d ago78¢64bought yes
1mo ago71¢3bought no
1mo ago76¢1bought yes
1mo ago75¢5bought yes
1mo ago77¢0.51bought yes
1mo ago71¢1bought no
2mo ago76¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.