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Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?

YES means Dune: Part Three

24h volume
0
4,651 lifetime
Open interest
2,203
+0 over 24h
Spread
8¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
45 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 36¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 36¢
NO bid / ask
64¢ / 72¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16399¢
  • ask16398¢
  • ask2375¢
  • ask30474¢
  • ask669¢
  • ask20037¢
  • ask536¢
spread8¢mid 32¢
  • bid20028¢
  • bid337¢
  • bid486¢
  • bid8842¢
  • bid1501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Dune: Part Three has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 21 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-DUN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 45 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago35¢0.39bought no
6d ago34¢200bought no
6d ago38¢13bought yes
9d ago39¢40bought yes
13d ago36¢27bought yes
13d ago36¢80bought yes
14d ago37¢7bought yes
1mo ago32¢45bought yes
1mo ago32¢74bought yes
1mo ago31¢0.39bought yes
1mo ago31¢0.39bought yes
1mo ago32¢5bought no
1mo ago32¢200bought no
1mo ago33¢0.39bought no
1mo ago36¢133bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.