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Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?

YES means The Invite

24h volume
0
7,456 lifetime
Open interest
4,280
Spread
8¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 90¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 18¢

YES bid / ask
82¢ / 90¢
NO bid / ask
10¢ / 18¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask32998¢
  • ask20091¢
  • ask590¢
spread8¢mid 86¢
  • bid20082¢
  • bid5745¢
  • bid26244¢
  • bid4511¢
  • bid2102¢
  • bid3001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Invite has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
May 28 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-INV
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago76¢7bought no
8d ago82¢1.24bought yes
8d ago82¢3.61bought yes
8d ago82¢8.43bought yes
9d ago82¢3.61bought yes
9d ago82¢1.2bought yes
9d ago82¢1.2bought yes
9d ago82¢95bought yes
12d ago77¢76bought no
13d ago79¢200bought no
13d ago53¢1bought no
13d ago80¢101bought no
13d ago83¢35bought yes
15d ago27¢1bought no
15d ago82¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.