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Best Adapted Screenplay·closes in 16mo

2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?

YES means Project Hail Mary

24h volume
0
6,024 lifetime
Open interest
3,284
+259 over 30d
Spread
4¢
13 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%

A YES contract costs 78¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 26¢

YES bid / ask
74¢ / 78¢
NO bid / ask
22¢ / 26¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢80¢90¢100¢volAug 24Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15099¢
  • ask10098¢
  • ask29695¢
  • ask9694¢
  • ask20078¢
spread4¢mid 76¢
  • bid1374¢
  • bid4473¢
  • bid2272¢
  • bid6271¢
  • bid20069¢
  • bid10060¢
  • bid4552¢
  • bid10051¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Project Hail Mary has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 23 · 9:15 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-PRO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago80¢61bought yes
5d ago77¢13bought yes
6d ago79¢14bought yes
8d ago78¢1.3bought yes
8d ago78¢3.78bought yes
9d ago78¢3.78bought yes
9d ago78¢1.26bought yes
9d ago76¢6bought yes
9d ago78¢95bought yes
13d ago76¢14bought yes
14d ago74¢7.19bought no
17d ago75¢20bought yes
19d ago76¢1bought yes
21d ago76¢1.91bought yes
21d ago76¢60bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.