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Oscar for Best Original Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will The Debut win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means The Debut

24h volume
17
5,437 lifetime
Open interest
3,334
−211 over 7d
Spread
9¢
1.87 × 50 at the touch
24h range
36¢ – 39¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%+7

A YES contract costs 33¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 33¢
NO bid / ask
67¢ / 76¢
24h low 36¢24h high 39¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1069¢
  • ask4,98565¢
  • ask6.9964¢
  • ask1,10559¢
  • ask7758¢
  • ask4.4957¢
  • ask27636¢
  • ask5033¢
spread9¢mid 28¢
  • bid1.8724¢
  • bid1523¢
  • bid4522¢
  • bid3821¢
  • bid4.2711¢
  • bid1010¢
  • bid3569¢
  • bid5008¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Debut has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARSPLAY-27-DEB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 131¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago38¢1.3bought yes
10h ago38¢3.74bought yes
15h ago39¢5.91bought yes
15h ago39¢1.46bought yes
21h ago36¢5bought yes
2d ago31¢15bought yes
3d ago32¢40bought yes
4d ago26¢18bought yes
5d ago26¢200bought no
5d ago29¢16bought yes
5d ago27¢39bought no
5d ago27¢43bought no
5d ago26¢11bought no
6d ago30¢5bought yes
7d ago32¢7.3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.