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Oscar for Best Original Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will Obsession win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means Obsession

24h volume
33
2,992 lifetime
Open interest
2,685
+33 over 24h
Spread
13¢
1.95 × 59 at the touch
24h range
14¢ – 14¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%+5

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 99¢
24h low 14¢24h high 14¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 7:05 AMSep 21, 6:53 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1.5950¢
  • ask349¢
  • ask1848¢
  • ask3639¢
  • ask8.1138¢
  • ask20016¢
  • ask115¢
  • ask5914¢
spread13¢mid 8¢
  • bid1.951¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Obsession has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARSPLAY-27-OBS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 131¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18h ago14¢1bought yes
18h ago14¢32bought yes
3d ago9¢52bought yes
5d ago13¢33bought yes
6d ago13¢10bought yes
6d ago13¢1bought yes
8d ago14¢135bought yes
8d ago14¢1.68bought yes
8d ago13¢6bought yes
8d ago14¢28bought yes
10d ago9¢200bought yes
13d ago13¢145bought yes
13d ago10¢188bought yes
15d ago9¢5bought yes
15d ago11¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.