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Oscar for Best Original Screenplay·closes in 16mo

Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars?

YES means Wild Horse Nine

24h volume
247
13.7k lifetime
Open interest
5,166
Spread
16¢
28 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
28%−6

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
72%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 71¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1675¢
  • ask4,98265¢
  • ask7164¢
  • ask3462¢
  • ask9.1961¢
  • ask5047¢
  • ask1046¢
  • ask1045¢
spread16¢mid 37¢
  • bid2829¢
  • bid66728¢
  • bid4412¢
  • bid8311¢
  • bid5110¢
  • bid439¢
  • bid1178¢
  • bid5007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Wild Horse Nine has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 5 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARSPLAY-27-WIL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 131¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago32¢16bought no
12h ago32¢30bought no
12h ago31¢30bought no
12h ago33¢27bought no
12h ago30¢3.85bought no
12h ago29¢10bought no
12h ago29¢13bought no
12h ago29¢2.21bought no
12h ago29¢20bought no
12h ago29¢1.95bought no
12h ago28¢61bought no
13h ago41¢10bought no
13h ago57¢5bought yes
13h ago65¢18bought yes
1d ago34¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.