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Turkish parliamentary election·closes in 32mo

Who will win the next Turkish general election?

YES means AKP

24h volume
0
1,316 lifetime
Open interest
382
+0 over 7d
Spread
9¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
68%

A YES contract costs 76¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
32%

costs 33¢

YES bid / ask
67¢ / 76¢
NO bid / ask
24¢ / 33¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢volSep 17, 8:00 AMSep 19, 6:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask74097¢
  • ask24797¢
  • ask20081¢
  • ask20077¢
  • ask576¢
spread9¢mid 72¢
  • bid20067¢
  • bid17566¢
  • bid23426¢
  • bid25212¢
  • bid2,75111¢
  • bid12910¢
  • bid3,0803¢
  • bid3,6502¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Turkish general election is AKP, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 7, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 7, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPARLITURKEY-28-AKP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 88¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14d ago68¢3.37bought no
14d ago69¢7bought no
14d ago69¢5bought no
14d ago76¢15bought yes
18d ago72¢11bought yes
18d ago76¢54bought yes
24d ago69¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.