WHO WILL BE CHARACTER IN JAMES BOND·closes in 52mo

Will Ralph Fiennes perform as M in the next James Bond film?

YES means Ralph Fiennes

24h volume
0
114 lifetime
Open interest
67
+0 over 7d
Spread
100 × 100 at the touch
24h range
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 70¢
Recent buying25% YES · 75% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 17, 8:00 AMSep 19, 6:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask13271¢
  • ask17770¢
  • ask10039¢
spreadmid 35¢
  • bid10030¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ralph Fiennes performs/ is announced as M in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Ralph Fiennes satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Ralph Fiennes is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform M in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Ralph Fiennes appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as M in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Ralph Fiennes was officially announced in M, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for M (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Ralph Fiennes is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Ralph Fiennes being announced or performing in M, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for M.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 8 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 2, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLE007-M-RAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 25% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago38¢2bought yes
2mo ago30¢6bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.