WHO WILL BE CHARACTER IN JAMES BOND·closes in 52mo

Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?

YES means Margaret Qualley

24h volume
0
3,204 lifetime
Open interest
1,998
+0 over 7d
Spread
10 × 100 at the touch
24h range
20 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask
31¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 69¢
Recent buying51% YES · 49% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢volSep 16Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask26191¢
  • ask17989¢
  • ask12588¢
  • ask1,54987¢
  • ask34368¢
  • ask5367¢
  • ask3863¢
  • ask10039¢
spreadmid 35¢
  • bid1031¢
  • bid10030¢
  • bid4613¢
  • bid33910¢
  • bid13
  • bid74
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Margaret Qualley performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Margaret Qualley satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Margaret Qualley is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Margaret Qualley appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Margaret Qualley was officially announced in a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Margaret Qualley is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Margaret Qualley being announced or performing in a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 14 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 2, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLE007-MAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 20 trades, 51% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago30¢21bought no
13d ago37¢35bought yes
24d ago29¢40bought no
26d ago29¢35bought no
1mo ago31¢2.35bought no
1mo ago32¢5bought no
2mo ago38¢5bought yes
2mo ago39¢20bought yes
2mo ago39¢7.35bought yes
2mo ago27¢4.91bought no
2mo ago27¢4.61bought no
2mo ago28¢5bought no
2mo ago35¢5bought yes
2mo ago36¢296bought yes
2mo ago27¢166bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.