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WHO WILL BE CHARACTER IN JAMES BOND·closes in 52mo

Will Idris Elba perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?

YES means Idris Elba

24h volume
0
163 lifetime
Open interest
132
Spread
83¢
10 × 140 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 85¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask14098¢
spread83¢mid 56¢
  • bid1015¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Idris Elba performs/ is announced as The Villain in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Idris Elba satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Idris Elba is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform The Villain in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Idris Elba appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as The Villain in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Idris Elba was officially announced in The Villain, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for The Villain (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Idris Elba is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Idris Elba being announced or performing in The Villain, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for The Villain.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 8 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 2, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-IDR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.