galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 Presidential matchup·closes in 26mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?

YES means AOC v. JD Vance

24h volume
19
29.2k lifetime
Open interest
18.2k
−14 over 24h
Spread
5¢
24 × 11 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 13¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%−4

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 89¢
24h low 12¢24h high 13¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 5:35 AMSep 21, 1:57 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1345¢
  • ask50040¢
  • ask7.8436¢
  • ask3530¢
  • ask14723¢
  • ask46718¢
  • ask10017¢
  • ask1116¢
spread5¢mid 14¢
  • bid2411¢
  • bid100.0k10¢
  • bid2110¢
  • bid20510¢
  • bid528¢
  • bid18¢
  • bid638¢
  • bid718¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCJVAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 62¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago12¢5.77bought no
3h ago13¢12bought no
3h ago12¢0.03bought no
10h ago13¢1.72bought no
1d ago16¢1.8bought yes
1d ago16¢57bought yes
1d ago16¢18bought yes
2d ago16¢5.9bought yes
2d ago16¢3.01bought yes
2d ago16¢35bought yes
3d ago17¢2.77bought yes
5d ago13¢16bought no
6d ago16¢5.9bought yes
7d ago17¢28bought yes
7d ago18¢16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.