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2028 Presidential matchup·closes in 26mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?

YES means AOC v. Marco Rubio

24h volume
0
22.4k lifetime
Open interest
12.5k
Spread
1¢
13 × 11 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 95¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask567¢
  • ask327¢
  • ask1487¢
  • ask177¢
  • ask3,2506¢
  • ask146¢
  • ask6186¢
  • ask116¢
spread1¢mid 5¢
  • bid135¢
  • bid825¢
  • bid235¢
  • bid465¢
  • bid1954¢
  • bid344¢
  • bid14¢
  • bid644¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and Marco Rubio (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCMRUB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 62¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago5¢603bought no
2d ago5¢8bought no
2d ago6¢3.25bought no
2d ago5¢21bought no
2d ago5¢20bought no
2d ago5¢1.28bought no
2d ago6¢11bought no
6d ago6¢12bought no
6d ago6¢136bought no
6d ago6¢3bought no
6d ago6¢4.72bought no
11d ago6¢21bought no
11d ago6¢12bought no
16d ago7¢5.66bought yes
16d ago7¢27bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.