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2028 Presidential matchup·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?

YES means Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance

24h volume
330
65.9k lifetime
Open interest
34.6k
−96 over 24h
Spread
3¢
128 × 38 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 12¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%−1

A YES contract costs 12¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 12¢
NO bid / ask
88¢ / 91¢
24h low 9¢24h high 12¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 5:36 AMSep 21, 5:12 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30026¢
  • ask20021¢
  • ask35320¢
  • ask67917¢
  • ask8716¢
  • ask49314¢
  • ask2,62713¢
  • ask3812¢
spread3¢mid 11¢
  • bid1289¢
  • bid7249¢
  • bid199¢
  • bid59¢
  • bid289¢
  • bid128¢
  • bid417¢
  • bid17¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWJVAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 62¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago12¢0.5bought yes
5h ago12¢15bought yes
9h ago9¢200bought no
9h ago9¢0.33bought no
9h ago9¢97bought no
9h ago9¢17bought no
1d ago12¢11bought yes
1d ago13¢26bought yes
1d ago9¢1bought no
2d ago9¢3.58bought no
2d ago9¢155bought no
2d ago9¢31bought no
2d ago13¢363bought yes
2d ago13¢6.9bought yes
3d ago13¢11bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.