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2028 Presidential matchup·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?

YES means Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio

24h volume
0
47.5k lifetime
Open interest
26.7k
Spread
1¢
100 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask397¢
  • ask3.737¢
  • ask107¢
  • ask157¢
  • ask3,0006¢
  • ask1566¢
  • ask515¢
  • ask2505¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid1004¢
  • bid1524¢
  • bid11.1k1¢
  • bid10.0k1¢
  • bid1,0540¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom (D) and Marco Rubio (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 7 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWMRUB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 62¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago1¢1bought no
6d ago7¢0.13bought yes
6d ago5¢1bought no
11d ago5¢1bought no
17d ago7¢13bought yes
23d ago7¢7.78bought yes
1mo ago5¢10bought no
1mo ago5¢48bought no
1mo ago7¢10bought no
1mo ago7¢500bought no
1mo ago7¢232bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago10¢0.69bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.