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Party winning presidency·closes in 85mo

Will the Democratic party win the Presidency in 2032?

YES means Democratic party

24h volume
1
187 lifetime
Open interest
80
Spread
4¢
394 × 3 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%−2

A YES contract costs 51¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 51¢
NO bid / ask
49¢ / 53¢
Recent buying19% YES · 81% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1894¢
  • ask10092¢
  • ask4,47691¢
  • ask1060¢
  • ask4055¢
  • ask5,00053¢
  • ask1452¢
  • ask351¢
spread4¢mid 49¢
  • bid39447¢
  • bid5,00046¢
  • bid1043¢
  • bid1030¢
  • bid315¢
  • bid146¢
  • bid5,0015¢
  • bid1004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 2, 2033 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPARTY-2032-D
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 19% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19h ago51¢1bought yes
1d ago53¢2bought yes
1d ago47¢2bought no
1d ago47¢2bought no
1d ago51¢2bought yes
13d ago47¢1bought no
13d ago52¢1bought yes
13d ago52¢1bought yes
13d ago47¢1bought no
1mo ago46¢3bought no
2mo ago46¢20bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.