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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Greg Abbott

24h volume
0
406.6k lifetime
Open interest
357.5k
+1,645 over 7d
Spread
0¢
24.8k × 1,752 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5351¢
  • ask501¢
  • ask70.1k1¢
  • ask80.1k1¢
  • ask34.1k1¢
  • ask59.2k1¢
  • ask70.2k0¢
  • ask1,7520¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid24.8k0¢
  • bid529.9k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Greg Abbott is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-GABB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago0¢1,333bought yes
3d ago0¢11bought no
6d ago0¢312bought yes
7d ago0¢50bought yes
8d ago0¢3bought no
9d ago0¢384bought no
9d ago0¢862bought no
10d ago0¢10bought no
14d ago0¢93bought no
15d ago0¢312bought yes
16d ago0¢1,232bought yes
16d ago0¢14bought yes
20d ago0¢1bought yes
21d ago0¢1bought yes
22d ago0¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.