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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means James Talarico

24h volume
187
1.90M lifetime
Open interest
1.89M
+583.6k over 30d
Spread
1¢
2,763 × 273.2k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1.814¢
  • ask10.0k10¢
  • ask7,8279¢
  • ask218¢
  • ask8.937¢
  • ask6,5914¢
  • ask14.0k3¢
  • ask273.2k2¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid2,7631¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If James Talarico is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 31 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-JTAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago1¢94bought no
14h ago1¢47bought no
21h ago2¢47bought yes
1d ago1¢468bought no
1d ago1¢255bought no
1d ago2¢100bought yes
2d ago2¢141bought yes
2d ago2¢4,679bought yes
2d ago1¢100bought no
2d ago1¢1,473bought no
2d ago1¢1,003bought no
2d ago1¢24bought no
2d ago2¢50bought yes
3d ago1¢97bought no
3d ago2¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.