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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Nikki Haley

24h volume
309
651.3k lifetime
Open interest
587.0k
Spread
0¢
31.2k × 166.0k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,4351¢
  • ask30.5k1¢
  • ask50.5k1¢
  • ask3,0001¢
  • ask21.0k1¢
  • ask50.5k1¢
  • ask56.0k0¢
  • ask166.0k0¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid31.2k0¢
  • bid4.82M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Nikki Haley is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-NHAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago0¢309bought no
2d ago0¢93bought no
3d ago0¢46bought no
3d ago0¢12bought no
5d ago0¢156bought no
8d ago0¢3bought no
11d ago0¢309bought no
12d ago0¢312bought yes
15d ago0¢156bought yes
17d ago0¢4,674bought no
19d ago0¢5bought no
20d ago0¢250bought yes
20d ago0¢105bought no
21d ago0¢558bought yes
21d ago0¢95bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.