galdor.xyz
Admin
Turkish presidential election first round·closes in 32mo

Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election?

YES means Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

24h volume
0
12.9k lifetime
Open interest
421
Spread
5¢
105 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
64%

A YES contract costs 71¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
36%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 71¢
NO bid / ask
29¢ / 34¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask1.4199¢
  • ask1,00096¢
  • ask31996¢
  • ask18695¢
  • ask7.0591¢
  • ask20072¢
  • ask571¢
spread5¢mid 69¢
  • bid10566¢
  • bid20063¢
  • bid14228¢
  • bid20016¢
  • bid77015¢
  • bid9011¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid1,0004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 15, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 7, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 7, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESTURKEYR1-28-RTAY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 91¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago64¢1bought no
14d ago66¢16bought no
14d ago71¢16bought yes
18d ago70¢5bought yes
1mo ago64¢2.82bought no
1mo ago63¢1.39bought no
1mo ago69¢2.95bought yes
1mo ago71¢1.26bought yes
2mo ago69¢1.41bought yes
2mo ago69¢1.41bought yes
2mo ago65¢13bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.