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Number of rate cuts·closes in 2mo

Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

YES means Exactly 0 cuts

Effectively settled. Anyone who bought 'two cuts' in January is holding a 0¢ contract.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
4,107
3.01M lifetime
Open interest
1.11M
+1,678 over 24h
Spread
0¢
15 × 25 at the touch
24h range
95¢ – 98¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%+2

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 3¢

YES bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
24h low 95¢24h high 98¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volNov 4, 2:26 AMNov 5, 2:11 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask0.0198¢
  • ask0.0198¢
  • ask3.0198¢
  • ask3298¢
  • ask0.0198¢
  • ask26998¢
  • ask76898¢
  • ask2598¢
spread0¢mid 98¢
  • bid1597¢
  • bid1397¢
  • bid3797¢
  • bid4897¢
  • bid9997¢
  • bid5297¢
  • bid11797¢
  • bid7797¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
0
cap
0
ticker
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago97¢0.83bought no
4h ago98¢5.1bought yes
4h ago98¢1.02bought yes
4h ago98¢394bought yes
4h ago98¢0.01bought yes
4h ago98¢4.41bought yes
4h ago98¢18bought yes
6h ago98¢3.36bought yes
7h ago97¢1.11bought no
7h ago98¢0.01bought yes
7h ago98¢0.01bought yes
7h ago98¢5.19bought yes
7h ago98¢5bought yes
8h ago98¢0.82bought yes
8h ago97¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.