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Number of rate cuts·closes in 2mo

Will the Fed cut rates 10 times?

YES means Exactly 10 cuts

24h volume
0
306.5k lifetime
Open interest
254.8k
−3,399 over 30d
Spread
0¢
0 × 3,731 at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 1¢
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 1¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volOct 7Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8005¢
  • ask21.1k2¢
  • ask2,0001¢
  • ask1,0001¢
  • ask5,4661¢
  • ask4,2041¢
  • ask2,0000¢
  • ask3,7310¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Fed cuts 10 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    10
    cap
    10
    ticker
    KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T10
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.