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Number of rate cuts·closes in 2mo

Will the Fed cut rates 11 times?

YES means Exactly 11 cuts

24h volume
0
259.8k lifetime
Open interest
216.3k
Spread
0¢
0 × 3,838 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Fed cuts 11 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 29, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
11
cap
11
ticker
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T11
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago1¢3.73bought yes
13d ago1¢187bought yes
13d ago0¢1,000bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes
13d ago0¢60bought yes
13d ago0¢5.59bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes
13d ago0¢1,000bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes
13d ago0¢65bought yes
13d ago0¢5.87bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes
13d ago0¢150bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.