Redistricting·closes in 26mo

What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections?

YES means Arizona

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 24h
Spread
13¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 86¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10099¢
  • ask54481¢
  • ask20080¢
  • ask20027¢
spread13¢mid 21¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid20013¢
  • bid84
  • bid366
  • bid100
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Arizona legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Arizona as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 7, 2028, the market will resolve to NO

opened
May 11 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXREDISTRICTING-28-AZ
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.