Redistricting·closes in 26mo

What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections?

YES means Maryland

24h volume
0
1,410 lifetime
Open interest
457
Spread
11¢
5 × 108 at the touch
24h range
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
56%

A YES contract costs 56¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
44%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 56¢
NO bid / ask
44¢ / 55¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Maryland legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

These maps must be: Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; AND Not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in Maryland as of the Expiration Date; AND In effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption For clarity: Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will resolve to YES if they are ultimately in effect by the Expiration Date Maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master will resolve to NO Maps that are withdrawn by the Legislature before implementation will resolve to NO If no new maps are adopted by Nov 7, 2028, the market will resolve to NO

opened
May 11 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXREDISTRICTING-28-MD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 14 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago56¢8.66bought yes
16d ago45¢0.94bought no
16d ago43¢16bought no
16d ago56¢17bought yes
1mo ago69¢5bought yes
2mo ago64¢0.06bought no
2mo ago59¢18bought yes
2mo ago55¢33bought yes
2mo ago51¢100bought yes
2mo ago50¢1bought yes
2mo ago45¢100bought yes
2mo ago45¢100bought yes
2mo ago45¢1bought yes
2mo ago41¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.