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Rivian KPI·closes in 19mo

Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 40000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?

YES means Above 40000

24h volume
0
9,270 lifetime
Open interest
3,037
Spread
8¢
5 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
93%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
7%

costs 8¢

YES bid / ask
92¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 8¢
Recent buying2% YES · 98% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid592¢
    • bid20091¢
    • bid10077¢
    • bid2175¢
    • bid1870¢
    • bid2065¢
    • bid1662¢
    • bid3.360¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Rivian Automotive Inc. reports Above 40000 total vehicles delivered in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 23 · 3:13 PM UTC
    closes
    Mar 31, 2028 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 31, 2028 · 9:00 PM UTC
    floor
    40000
    ticker
    KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-40000
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 15 trades, 2% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    6d ago93¢3bought yes
    13d ago92¢2bought yes
    16d ago91¢5bought yes
    17d ago84¢200bought no
    17d ago86¢100bought no
    17d ago87¢1.01bought no
    17d ago87¢5bought no
    17d ago87¢200bought no
    20d ago87¢200bought no
    20d ago88¢100bought no
    27d ago90¢100bought no
    1mo ago87¢200bought no
    2mo ago95¢2bought yes
    2mo ago96¢5bought yes
    2mo ago99¢3.3bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.