Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
600 lifetime
Open interest
600
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
66%

A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
34%

costs 41¢

YES bid / ask
59¢ / 68¢
NO bid / ask
32¢ / 41¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask60098¢
  • ask1,13796¢
  • ask2,15595¢
  • ask54588¢
  • ask1787¢
  • ask17085¢
  • ask15984¢
  • ask20068¢
spreadmid 64¢
  • bid559¢
  • bid20058¢
  • bid18625¢
  • bid26724¢
  • bid103
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in Maxwell v. Thomas, rules a claim concerning the application of First Step Act time credits seeking accelerated transfer to a halfway house or home confinement may be brought through a habeas petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a claim regarding the application of time credits under the First Step Act of 2018, seeking accelerated transfer to a halfway house or home confinement, can be brought in a habeas petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241 after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court rules that such a claim cannot be brought under § 2241, dismisses the case or certiorari as improvidently granted, or remands or otherwise disposes of the case without resolving that question on the merits.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-MAXTHO28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1mo ago66¢10bought yes
1mo ago66¢10bought yes
1mo ago66¢10bought yes
1mo ago66¢10bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago65¢5bought yes
1mo ago64¢50bought yes
1mo ago64¢25bought yes
1mo ago63¢50bought yes
2mo ago80¢0.01bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.