Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas
YES means Before Aug 1, 2028
- 24h volume
- 0
- 600 lifetime
- Open interest
- 600
- Spread
- 9¢
- 5 × 200 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 17 recent trades
A YES contract costs 68¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 41¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask60098¢
- ask1,13796¢
- ask2,15595¢
- ask54588¢
- ask1787¢
- ask17085¢
- ask15984¢
- ask20068¢
- bid559¢
- bid20058¢
- bid18625¢
- bid26724¢
- bid1031¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Supreme Court, in Maxwell v. Thomas, rules a claim concerning the application of First Step Act time credits seeking accelerated transfer to a halfway house or home confinement may be brought through a habeas petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a claim regarding the application of time credits under the First Step Act of 2018, seeking accelerated transfer to a halfway house or home confinement, can be brought in a habeas petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241 after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court rules that such a claim cannot be brought under § 2241, dismisses the case or certiorari as improvidently granted, or remands or otherwise disposes of the case without resolving that question on the merits.
- opened
- Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
- closes
- Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXSCOTUSCASE-MAXTHO28
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?.
Recent trades
Over the last 17 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo ago | 66¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 66¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 66¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 66¢ | 10 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 65¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 64¢ | 50 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 64¢ | 25 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 63¢ | 50 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 80¢ | 0.01 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.