Supreme Court decisions·closes in 23mo

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of RiseandShine Corporation, d/b/a Rise Brewing in RiseandShine Corp. v. PepsiCo, Inc.

YES means Before Aug 1, 2028

24h volume
0
634 lifetime
Open interest
634
+125 over 30d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
69%

A YES contract costs 70¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
31%

costs 39¢

YES bid / ask
61¢ / 70¢
NO bid / ask
30¢ / 39¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask2,12795¢
  • ask2,66394¢
  • ask38392¢
  • ask20091¢
  • ask26784¢
  • ask5483¢
  • ask20070¢
spreadmid 66¢
  • bid561¢
  • bid20060¢
  • bid25025¢
  • bid32524¢
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Supreme Court, in RiseandShine Corp. v. PepsiCo, Inc., rules trademark strength is a question of fact in determining likelihood of confusion under 15 U.S.C. § 1114, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that trademark strength is a question of fact in a likelihood-of-confusion analysis under 15 U.S.C. § 1114 after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that trademark strength is a question of law, characterizes it as a mixed question without holding that the trademark-strength determination is factual, dismisses the writ as improvidently granted, or otherwise dismisses, vacates, or remands the case without resolving the Question Presented on the merits. A remand following an express merits holding that trademark strength is a question of fact resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Aug 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSCASE-RISPEP28
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?.

Recent trades

Over the last 7 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago69¢25bought yes
26d ago69¢100bought yes
1mo ago69¢100bought yes
2mo ago59¢200bought yes
2mo ago55¢191bought yes
2mo ago55¢9bought yes
2mo ago55¢8.8bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.