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Supreme Court makeup·closes in 28mo

What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?

YES means 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals

24h volume
5.9
5,379 lifetime
Open interest
3,114
−9.9 over 7d
Spread
3¢
205 × 262 at the touch
24h range
12¢ – 14¢
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%−4

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 88¢
24h low 12¢24h high 14¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask526¢
  • ask524¢
  • ask323¢
  • ask20022¢
  • ask7.2321¢
  • ask519¢
  • ask3316¢
  • ask26215¢
spread3¢mid 14¢
  • bid20512¢
  • bid1007¢
  • bid1506¢
  • bid4522¢
  • bid5732¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If on Jan 20, 2029 there are 7 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republican Presidents and 2 Supreme Court justices appointed by Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes.

If there are not nine justices at the time of Expiration, then that strike will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 9, 2024 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSPOWER-29-29JAN20-R7-2
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 96¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago14¢1bought no
3h ago12¢4.9bought no
1d ago16¢5.9bought yes
3d ago14¢4bought no
8d ago16¢5.9bought yes
8d ago16¢59bought yes
14d ago16¢4.41bought yes
14d ago16¢1.49bought yes
1mo ago15¢5bought yes
1mo ago12¢1bought no
2mo ago16¢0.59bought yes
2mo ago19¢16bought yes
2mo ago19¢34bought yes
2mo ago17¢5.55bought yes
2mo ago17¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.