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SCOTUS members resigning·closes in 28mo

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

YES means John Roberts

24h volume
0
6,262 lifetime
Open interest
3,336
+0 over 7d
Spread
9¢
10 × 205 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
24%

A YES contract costs 24¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
76%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 24¢
NO bid / ask
76¢ / 85¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3859¢
  • ask4658¢
  • ask4057¢
  • ask1455¢
  • ask1250¢
  • ask545¢
  • ask142¢
  • ask20524¢
spread9¢mid 20¢
  • bid1015¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid1513¢
  • bid512¢
  • bid0.5810¢
  • bid204¢
  • bid523¢
  • bid113¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If John Roberts resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-JR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18d ago24¢3bought yes
23d ago23¢25bought yes
23d ago22¢11bought yes
23d ago23¢47bought yes
1mo ago15¢7.37bought no
1mo ago16¢5bought no
1mo ago23¢12bought yes
1mo ago16¢1.16bought no
1mo ago17¢5bought no
1mo ago17¢0.02bought no
1mo ago15¢4bought no
2mo ago19¢498bought yes
2mo ago19¢88bought yes
2mo ago16¢15bought yes
2mo ago15¢5.12bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.