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SCOTUS members resigning·closes in 28mo

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

YES means Sonia Sotomayor

24h volume
0
11.5k lifetime
Open interest
5,933
+154 over 7d
Spread
5¢
131 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 92¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 15Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,39264¢
  • ask1,56263¢
  • ask55062¢
  • ask4451¢
  • ask40033¢
  • ask1332¢
  • ask5030¢
  • ask20013¢
spread5¢mid 11¢
  • bid1318¢
  • bid4018¢
  • bid15¢
  • bid895¢
  • bid0.534¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid12¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Sonia Sotomayor resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-SS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 27 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago11¢154bought yes
3d ago9¢5bought yes
18d ago11¢3bought yes
19d ago9¢200bought yes
22d ago8¢1.07bought no
1mo ago9¢2bought yes
1mo ago32¢389bought yes
1mo ago9¢500bought yes
1mo ago32¢2bought yes
1mo ago13¢50bought yes
1mo ago9¢6.07bought yes
1mo ago31¢12bought yes
1mo ago8¢1.07bought no
1mo ago8¢5bought no
1mo ago8¢2.25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.