galdor.xyz
Admin
SCOTUS members resigning·closes in 28mo

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

YES means Clarence Thomas

24h volume
0.93
36.0k lifetime
Open interest
14.0k
−34 over 7d
Spread
4¢
10 × 90 at the touch
24h range
47¢ – 47¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
47%−2

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 52¢

YES bid / ask
48¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 52¢
24h low 47¢24h high 47¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10064¢
  • ask560¢
  • ask50059¢
  • ask20057¢
  • ask50056¢
  • ask40054¢
  • ask20053¢
  • ask9052¢
spread4¢mid 50¢
  • bid1048¢
  • bid20047¢
  • bid0.8135¢
  • bid1826¢
  • bid2.2125¢
  • bid5321¢
  • bid26920¢
  • bid119¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Clarence Thomas resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29-CT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago47¢0.93bought no
1d ago49¢1.97bought yes
3d ago47¢39bought no
3d ago48¢5.68bought no
3d ago49¢9.83bought yes
7d ago49¢26bought yes
9d ago49¢0.19bought yes
10d ago48¢49bought no
14d ago48¢19bought no
17d ago48¢3.25bought no
17d ago48¢18bought no
18d ago49¢3bought yes
24d ago48¢3.72bought no
24d ago51¢5.68bought yes
25d ago48¢9.3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.