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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Andrew Oldham

24h volume
0
40.0k lifetime
Open interest
16.0k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
429 × 11 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 79¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
15¢20¢25¢volSep 20, 6:51 PMSep 21, 5:30 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2440¢
  • ask40031¢
  • ask10029¢
  • ask27628¢
  • ask11525¢
  • ask3824¢
  • ask523¢
  • ask1122¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid42921¢
  • bid3820¢
  • bid0.1619¢
  • bid4118¢
  • bid1317¢
  • bid14416¢
  • bid4015¢
  • bid16614¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Andrew Oldham is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 7, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-AO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago21¢6.29bought no
3d ago21¢44bought yes
3d ago21¢5bought yes
3d ago21¢10bought yes
3d ago21¢10bought yes
3d ago21¢10bought yes
3d ago21¢199bought yes
3d ago23¢5bought no
3d ago20¢3.88bought no
3d ago20¢3bought no
3d ago20¢3.76bought no
3d ago20¢8.1bought no
3d ago20¢3.25bought no
3d ago20¢5bought no
3d ago21¢3.32bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.