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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Amul Thapar

24h volume
0
49.0k lifetime
Open interest
12.3k
Spread
0¢
300 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
34 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 93¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18¢
  • ask5.638¢
  • ask218¢
  • ask5.028¢
  • ask0.527¢
  • ask487¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask107¢
spread0¢mid 7¢
  • bid3007¢
  • bid486¢
  • bid6.036¢
  • bid7.016¢
  • bid135¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid204¢
  • bid254¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Amul Thapar is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 7, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-AT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 34 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12d ago7¢2.38bought yes
12d ago7¢41bought yes
12d ago7¢0.12bought yes
26d ago7¢0.12bought no
26d ago7¢9.88bought no
1mo ago6¢5bought no
1mo ago9¢98bought no
1mo ago6¢20bought no
1mo ago6¢12bought no
1mo ago9¢29bought no
1mo ago9¢6.97bought no
1mo ago9¢10bought yes
1mo ago9¢1.08bought no
1mo ago9¢149bought yes
1mo ago9¢56bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.