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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means D. John Sauer

24h volume
0
16.8k lifetime
Open interest
10.2k
+507 over 30d
Spread
1¢
351 × 12 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 10¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 10¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask219¢
  • ask20014¢
  • ask1,00012¢
  • ask10011¢
  • ask22710¢
  • ask3899¢
  • ask468¢
  • ask125¢
spread1¢mid 5¢
  • bid3514¢
  • bid1253¢
  • bid1,0552¢
  • bid2331¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If D. John Sauer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 20 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-JSAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago8¢2bought yes
4d ago4¢10bought yes
4d ago4¢200bought yes
4d ago4¢10bought yes
15d ago4¢1.6bought no
15d ago4¢0.3bought no
15d ago4¢6.06bought no
15d ago4¢0.3bought no
15d ago5¢0.87bought no
15d ago4¢0.3bought no
15d ago4¢0.3bought no
15d ago4¢50bought no
15d ago4¢0.96bought no
15d ago4¢6.22bought no
15d ago5¢25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.