galdor.xyz
Admin
Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Lawrence VanDyke become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Lawrence VanDyke

24h volume
0
17.3k lifetime
Open interest
12.6k
Spread
2¢
102 × 1,012 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40012¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask1005¢
  • ask8455¢
  • ask955¢
  • ask322¢
  • ask132¢
  • ask1,0122¢
spread2¢mid 1¢
  • bid1020¢
  • bid1,5060¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Lawrence VanDyke is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 7, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-LVD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago0¢0.7bought no
20d ago0¢1.7bought no
20d ago0¢0.62bought no
20d ago0¢0.59bought no
20d ago0¢0.13bought no
20d ago0¢0.14bought no
20d ago0¢4.78bought no
20d ago0¢1.34bought no
26d ago1¢0.33bought no
26d ago1¢666bought no
26d ago1¢0.93bought no
26d ago1¢0.54bought no
26d ago1¢10bought no
26d ago1¢113bought no
26d ago1¢6.68bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.