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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Michael Park become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Michael Park

24h volume
0
16.9k lifetime
Open interest
14.2k
+0 over 24h
Spread
3¢
19 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 98¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 4:14 AMSep 21, 2:43 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask58645¢
  • ask4,74315¢
  • ask139¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask26¢
  • ask56¢
  • ask2.65¢
  • ask105¢
spread3¢mid 4¢
  • bid192¢
  • bid1,0042¢
  • bid1.781¢
  • bid2251¢
  • bid2711¢
  • bid6.020¢
  • bid730¢
  • bid2810¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Michael Park is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 7, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-MP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago4¢10bought yes
4d ago4¢200bought yes
4d ago4¢10bought yes
13d ago9¢387bought yes
13d ago6¢23bought yes
13d ago6¢0.66bought yes
13d ago6¢500bought yes
18d ago5¢397bought yes
18d ago5¢51bought yes
18d ago5¢81bought yes
19d ago5¢5bought yes
22d ago3¢1bought yes
23d ago2¢1.64bought yes
23d ago2¢1bought yes
23d ago2¢3.77bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.