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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Ron DeSantis become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Ron DeSantis

24h volume
0
18.0k lifetime
Open interest
13.0k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
134 × 1,748 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 4:18 AMSep 20, 10:43 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1321¢
  • ask40014¢
  • ask13312¢
  • ask23011¢
  • ask1758¢
  • ask2.297¢
  • ask2406¢
  • ask1,7485¢
spread1¢mid 5¢
  • bid1344¢
  • bid123¢
  • bid3472¢
  • bid4611¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ron DeSantis is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 21 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-RDES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago5¢9.37bought yes
19d ago5¢19bought yes
21d ago4¢80bought no
21d ago5¢1.87bought yes
26d ago5¢71bought yes
1mo ago5¢88bought no
1mo ago5¢0.97bought no
1mo ago4¢16bought no
1mo ago5¢1.04bought no
1mo ago6¢781bought yes
1mo ago6¢1bought yes
2mo ago5¢5bought no
2mo ago5¢199bought no
2mo ago5¢111bought no
2mo ago6¢0.03bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.