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Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Steven Menashi become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Steven Menashi

24h volume
0
6,400 lifetime
Open interest
6,275
+0 over 7d
Spread
2¢
0 × 237 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,45682¢
  • ask55075¢
  • ask5074¢
  • ask58550¢
  • ask2,18937¢
  • ask2006¢
  • ask1,5004¢
  • ask2372¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Steven Menashi is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 21 · 7:20 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXSCOURT-29-SMEN
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 11 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    17d ago2¢50bought yes
    23d ago1¢500bought yes
    23d ago1¢500bought yes
    23d ago1¢500bought yes
    23d ago1¢400bought yes
    23d ago1¢1,325bought yes
    23d ago1¢125bought yes
    23d ago1¢1,000bought yes
    23d ago1¢1,875bought yes
    2mo ago8¢0.09bought yes
    2mo ago1¢125bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.