Next SCOTUS justice·closes in 28mo

Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

YES means Ted Cruz

24h volume
62
40.3k lifetime
Open interest
20.0k
+9,726 over 90d
Spread
20 × 10 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 6¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%2

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 97¢
24h low 24h high
Recent buying74% YES · 26% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢volJun 25Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask965
  • ask20
  • ask213
  • ask27
  • ask1
  • ask0.33
  • ask201
  • ask10
spreadmid
  • bid20
  • bid481
  • bid6.51
  • bid40
  • bid3.38
  • bid143
  • bid80
  • bid39
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ted Cruz is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 20, 2025 · 8:40 PM UTC
closes
Jan 21, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSCOURT-29-TED
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 74% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago24bought no
5h ago19bought no
5h ago18bought no
5h ago1.81bought no
5d ago10bought yes
5d ago10bought yes
5d ago11bought yes
7d ago100bought yes
7d ago87bought yes
7d ago2.48bought yes
11d ago38bought no
11d ago188bought no
19d ago10bought no
19d ago25bought yes
21d ago119bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.