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Democratic nominee for New York Senate·closes in 38mo

Will Chuck Schumer be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York?

YES means Chuck Schumer

24h volume
0
5,922 lifetime
Open interest
3,775
+578 over 30d
Spread
21¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
19 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 86¢
Recent buying21% YES · 79% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volAug 27Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2551¢
  • ask24248¢
  • ask50047¢
  • ask23246¢
  • ask25540¢
  • ask9337¢
  • ask1436¢
  • ask535¢
spread21¢mid 25¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid50013¢
  • bid23410¢
  • bid355¢
  • bid465¢
  • bid5005¢
  • bid2,0571¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chuck Schumer wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III New York Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 4, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATENYD-28-CSCH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 44¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 19 trades, 21% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago36¢1bought yes
14d ago34¢5.22bought no
19d ago34¢434bought no
19d ago35¢10bought no
21d ago37¢129bought yes
1mo ago26¢15bought yes
1mo ago31¢25bought no
1mo ago29¢200bought no
1mo ago31¢100bought no
1mo ago11¢19bought no
1mo ago31¢17bought yes
1mo ago30¢100bought yes
1mo ago28¢30bought yes
1mo ago29¢4.62bought yes
1mo ago29¢1.73bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.