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Democratic nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania?·closes in 38mo

Will Bob Casey Jr. be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?

YES means Bob Casey Jr.

24h volume
0
277 lifetime
Open interest
52
+0 over 30d
Spread
5¢
0 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 23Sep 10

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5598¢
  • ask4,26097¢
  • ask224¢
  • ask508¢
  • ask1006¢
  • ask105¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Bob Casey Jr. wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Pennsylvania Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 10 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXSENATEPAD-28-BCAS
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.