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Democratic nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania?·closes in 38mo

Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?

YES means Conor Lamb

24h volume
0
1,004 lifetime
Open interest
552
Spread
33¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 98¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask10099¢
  • ask13697¢
  • ask16897¢
  • ask837¢
  • ask535¢
spread33¢mid 19¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid2000¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Conor Lamb wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Pennsylvania Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 26 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATEPAD-28-CLAM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.