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Democratic nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania?·closes in 38mo

Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?

YES means Summer Lee

24h volume
0
3,738 lifetime
Open interest
2,080
+1,181 over 90d
Spread
41¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%

A YES contract costs 44¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 44¢
NO bid / ask
56¢ / 97¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10599¢
  • ask4998¢
  • ask44484¢
  • ask2,66483¢
  • ask11868¢
  • ask4,00059¢
  • ask945¢
  • ask544¢
spread41¢mid 24¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid562¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Summer Lee wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Pennsylvania Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 20 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATEPAD-28-SLEE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago42¢1bought yes
7d ago36¢30bought no
7d ago45¢1bought yes
10d ago36¢2.33bought no
11d ago42¢2.33bought yes
24d ago40¢200bought no
25d ago43¢11bought yes
1mo ago37¢2bought yes
1mo ago37¢500bought no
1mo ago37¢38bought no
1mo ago37¢34bought no
1mo ago37¢5bought no
2mo ago46¢20bought yes
2mo ago46¢3bought yes
2mo ago42¢131bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.