SNL successor·closes in 16mo

Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?

YES means Mike Shoemaker

24h volume: 0; 2,147 lifetime
Open interest: 954; +0 over 7d
Spread: 6¢; 0 × 176 at the touch
24h range: –; 6 recent trades

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask

0¢ / 6¢

NO bid / ask

94¢ / 100¢

Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask20099¢
ask1009¢
ask1766¢

spread–mid –

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mike Shoemaker is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: May 21, 2025 · 2:51 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXSNL-28-MS

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
1mo ago	2¢	1	bought no
1mo ago	2¢	18	bought no
1mo ago	4¢	16	bought no
1mo ago	5¢	15	bought yes
1mo ago	6¢	3.12	bought yes
2mo ago	3¢	14	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.