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SNL successor·closes in 16mo

Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?

YES means Steve Higgins

24h volume
0
13.8k lifetime
Open interest
2,102
+552 over 90d
Spread
5¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 41¢
NO bid / ask
59¢ / 64¢
Recent buying8% YES · 92% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23481¢
  • ask31280¢
  • ask34375¢
  • ask7874¢
  • ask773¢
  • ask11643¢
  • ask0.0442¢
  • ask541¢
spread5¢mid 39¢
  • bid20036¢
  • bid7.335¢
  • bid6910¢
  • bid528¢
  • bid946¢
  • bid5195¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Steve Higgins is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21, 2025 · 2:51 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSNL-28-SH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago41¢5bought yes
3d ago42¢1.96bought yes
22d ago35¢7.3bought no
22d ago36¢100bought no
1mo ago35¢7.5bought no
1mo ago35¢1bought no
1mo ago35¢1bought no
1mo ago35¢14bought no
1mo ago37¢2bought no
1mo ago37¢5bought no
1mo ago38¢2bought no
1mo ago38¢0.76bought no
1mo ago31¢1bought no
1mo ago33¢244bought no
1mo ago36¢246bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.