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SNL successor·closes in 16mo

Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?

YES means Seth Meyers

24h volume
0
9,912 lifetime
Open interest
2,259
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
100 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 88¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 21, 4:49 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22048¢
  • ask9047¢
  • ask346¢
  • ask3540¢
  • ask1520¢
  • ask11618¢
  • ask3.7717¢
  • ask516¢
spread4¢mid 14¢
  • bid10012¢
  • bid1111¢
  • bid1009¢
  • bid105¢
  • bid1514¢
  • bid2173¢
  • bid1,3082¢
  • bid9,6081¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Seth Meyers is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 1, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSNL-28-SMEY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13d ago14¢3.77bought no
14d ago13¢61bought no
17d ago18¢5.04bought yes
17d ago17¢3bought yes
1mo ago16¢3.77bought yes
1mo ago9¢0.3bought no
1mo ago9¢13bought no
1mo ago9¢7bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago10¢1bought no
1mo ago11¢0.17bought no
1mo ago10¢14bought no
1mo ago12¢49bought no
1mo ago13¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.