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SNL successor·closes in 16mo

Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?

YES means Tina Fey

24h volume
56
18.3k lifetime
Open interest
6,651
Spread
7¢
10 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 62¢

YES bid / ask
38¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 62¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask43374¢
  • ask6973¢
  • ask6772¢
  • ask8065¢
  • ask2964¢
  • ask1050¢
  • ask10046¢
  • ask545¢
spread7¢mid 42¢
  • bid1038¢
  • bid10037¢
  • bid3335¢
  • bid3516¢
  • bid2915¢
  • bid7714¢
  • bid25211¢
  • bid1,1256¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tina Fey is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 1, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSNL-28-TFEY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago45¢53bought yes
15h ago45¢2.13bought yes
1d ago45¢6.41bought yes
2d ago40¢19bought yes
2d ago45¢15bought yes
2d ago36¢1bought no
3d ago40¢0.14bought yes
4d ago39¢5bought no
4d ago40¢12bought yes
4d ago38¢6.48bought no
5d ago38¢2.39bought no
5d ago40¢2.39bought yes
6d ago40¢12bought yes
6d ago40¢4.79bought yes
7d ago42¢4.57bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.